The writers might be considering it for season 4. There were no official announcements yet. If for some reason, the space race continues and the series reaches 2020-ties, China will be there for sure. I can predict that with some 95% accuracy, the same percentage efficiency as the major vaccines against COVID. Arguably, it's more than great! Whatever the outcome, I would recommend watching the series. It's worth it. Yet, another race is as interesting as the space race. It's the Electric Vehicle race happening on the planet Earth right now.
How exciting is the automotive industry
We are witnessing the most disruptive times in the auto industry. More and more outstanding EVs are hitting the markets. Some stunning EVs are coming out with no Tesla badge on them. And they are coming from the places you wouldn't expect. If you want to write something about this EV race, well, you guessed it, China will be central to the story.
Did you know that in China there are 450 EV manufacturers?
Automotive brand as a software
Before I start writing about this race, I will dare to say something. Here is one of my predictions of the automotive industry. What if we start seeing automotive brands as software and not hardware. If you were to upload your automotive brand into a generic vehicle which one would it be? What would be so different about it? Unfortunately, many of the brands are not thinking that far ahead. It's not that I'm crazy and making things up. All I did is take an extreme version of the prediction that more competent people have already made. Morgan Stanley predicts that the car's value will be 40% hardware, 40 % software, and 20% of the content that streams into the vehicle. I would expect that software and content will go up to 90%. None of the manufacturers are close to mastering any of that, except Tesla, to a certain extent.
This whole situation reminds me of the story of Tivo in the US. Instead of becoming a software brand, Tivo decided to stay hardware. Time has proved that this was a wrong business decision. It's something to think about if you have anything to do with leading an automotive brand in these disruptive times.
Back to China.
China is winning the EV race and you don't know about it
I wouldn't say I like politics, but I can see the Biden's administration biggest concern - China. In almost every aspect of life. Politics, Economics, Technology, Space, etc. All that for a good reason.
Twenty-five years ago, Korean automotive brands started to invade Europe. Many were skeptical, including me. Today if you buy any of the Korean brands, you will not make a mistake. Look at Genesis how far they got with their premium offering.
Guess that the Chinese brands are in a similar position as Koreans were two decades ago. When Chinese automotive brands started to appear in Europe, many were laughing. Shattering the perception of cheap and low quality attached to China is not an easy task. I understand that not everyone is excited to drive a brand named Cherry. Maybe, it will take a lot more time to convince people to drive Chinese brands with an ICE engine. But the name of the game is not ICE anymore. That is the world of yesterday. Today, EVs are the future, and that future belongs to China. I will bet that you will start thinking differently about Chinese brands very soon. And not only that, you'll be a proud owner of one of them as they will be in pair and even superior to all others.
From followers to leaders
Once, I heard a story that they have found a factory in China that was producing fake Mercedeses. I don't know if any of that was close to being true. But China has come a long way from being a copycat to becoming a leader.
Here are some of the exciting things that are true:
There are 450 EV manufacturers in China.
By 2035 China plans to phase out all conventional gas-burning vehicles.
In 2020 1.33 million EVs and HEVs were sold in China (vs. US 328k).
Around 57% of all EV batteries in the world are from China.
Huawei, one of the biggest smartphone makers in the world, entered the EV market with its SERES SF5 model.
China's Google Baidu is setting up its EV manufacturing.
Chinese Nio (EV-startup) is coming to the Norway market this year.
The biggest market with global impact
Let's also acknowledge their role in accelerating EV adoption worldwide. Global auto manufactures are not willing to lose their position in a massive market like China that easily. Let's take Volkswagen, for example. They are one of the boldest brands when it comes to EVs. Without being so, they couldn't count on having 3.85 million unit sales (2020) a year in the future without being aggressive in electrification like China is. It is obvious why Volkswagen is taking such bold steps. Around 41% of the group's volume comes from China. But to succeed in the increasingly changing market, it will take a lot more than German engineering. The future is electric. It's about innovation and technology. And China is creating a market that will be the most competitive where even the established global manufacturers will struggle to keep up.
Take a look at the Nio brand. They are offering EVs at a superior price to Tesla with a better auto-driving solution. I'm more than sure that it will be equally successful in Norway as in China. This is what Volkswagens of this world are competing with.
Next time when you think of China, look more closely as you will find some great things happening there. Whether in the automotive industry, tech, and space. Yes, space. They already have a rover on Mars.
Hey, "For All Mankind" writers, I think it's time to take China's EV race to Mars. Believe that I have given you some thought starters for season 4.
You are welcome!